Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for August is currently $88.26/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $100.87/MWh, this represents a decrease of $12.61/MWh, or 12.5%. Aiding this decline in month-to-date pricing was a $37.04/MWh settlement on August 22nd – a price level not experienced in the past few months. Average hourly demand in the province has continued to decrease, settling to 9,347MW this week, equating to a week-over-week decline of 147MW, or 1.5%. One of the main contributors to the lower provincial demand was milder temperatures relative to the first couple weeks of August. Temperatures reached over 30°C throughout the first two weeks of the month, in contrast to the past week when a daily high of 23°C was set on August 25th. These cooler temperatures, along with more rainfall, will continue to help curb peak demand in the province. Furthermore, fairly consistent wind and solar generation has been able to keep extreme pricing at bay.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is currently at 4.1¢/kWh for the month of August, an increase of 0.5¢/kWh, or 14% compared to last week’s settle. This increase in price was driven by a tightening of the supply/demand spread and a sharp increase in the supply of natural gas generation. With elevated temperatures and humidity throughout the province this past week, demand has increased 9% (17,180MW) compared to average August levels, while supply only increased 6% (17, 719MW). To meet peak demand, natural gas generation has increased its supply by 51% (3,035MW). Although nuclear generation has remained stable (10,217MW), the supply of most other generation sources has decreased: hydro (-4%, 3,668MW), wind (-54%, 653MW), solar (-6%, 109MW). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 8.1¢/kWh and the first estimate recovery rate at 0.6¢/kWh, August’s total market price is currently 12.8¢/kWh.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Sarah Jakov, Energy Data Analyst
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