Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for September is currently settling at $97.03/MWh, a marginal increase of $4.26/MWh or 4.6% relative to last week’s settle of $92.77/MWh. Demand for the week stayed relatively flat, with only the 27th resulting in peak levels hitting almost 10,000MW and averaging 9,219MW, in contrast to the monthly average of 9,006MW. The demand increase experienced on the 27th resulted in average hourly prices of $166.62/MWh, which helped increase the monthly market price. Intermittent outages at Sundance 4 & 6, Keephills 1 and Battle River 4 further contributed to daily volatility, as 1,350MW of baseload generation was offline. Further adding to market unrest was the necessity for the AESO to incorporate Transmission Must-Run (TMR) service to meet provincial demand levels, coinciding with minimal electricity imports from British Columbia and Saskatchewan.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 3.0¢/kWh for month of September, with last week pulling the average down by 0.1¢/kWh or -2.46% compared to the previous 3-week settle. Both supply and demand levels have decreased by 14% and 16%, respectively, as the province heads toward its fall shoulder period. Natural gas-burning generation has dropped 74%, falling from August’s average 3224MW contribution down to ~827MW. Wind generation was the only power-producing source of electricity to increase its output to the grid, compared to August’s levels, adding 604MW (+86%). Nuclear, Hydro, Solar, and Biofuel all supplied depleted amounts compared to last month averages (-2%; -230MW, -10%; -374MW, -11%; -11MW, -13%; -6MW, respectively). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 5.0¢/kWh and the First Estimate Recovery Rate at 0.5¢/kWh, September’s total market price is settling at 8.5¢/kWh.
October’s first Global Adjustment is estimated at 6.6¢/kWh, with the First Estimate Recovery Rate at 0.8¢/kWh. With weighted average HOEP estimated to settle around 2.3¢/kWh, October’s total market price is currently estimated to settle around 9.7¢/kWh.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst
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