Due to recent volatility, Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for February is currently $101.67/MWh, an increase of $25.75/MWh or 34%. Demand levels have increased in the province, due to a return to more seasonal temperatures. Where we saw positive temperatures last week, almost hitting double digits in parts of the province, Alberta is now experiencing sub-zero temperatures. Coinciding with an increase in hourly demand, a downturn in wind generation has been a contributing factor to elevated pricing levels. Generator outages have compounded the issue, as they limit the provincial supply cushion; Battle River 5 and Sundance 6 were offline and have not yet returned to service.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 3.8¢/kWh so far this month, no change over last week’s settle. Natural gas-burning generation increased 16.3%, to 2,374MW, over the course of this past week. Baseload generation, such as nuclear, decreased its output by 2.2% to an average of 10,117MW. On the other hand, hydro-based generation increased output, climbing 0.1% to an average of 4,034MW. Solar and biofuel also increased output this past week (+35.7%; 49MW, +6.9%; 29MW, respectively), whereas wind generation fell (-4.0%, -2148MW). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 5.0¢/kWh, February’s total market price is settling at 8.8¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst
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