As a result of colder weather in Alberta, pricing volatility increased and has resulted in a current weighted average Power Pool price for February of $113.79/MWh, an uptick of $12.12/MWh or 12%. Consecutive days of double-digit negative temperatures increased demand, which had a direct impact on prices this past week. Prices settled to over $100/MWh on multiple days and reached a peak on February 22nd of $403.15/MWh. Generator outages were minimal, with only HR Milner experiencing intermittent outages and Sundance 6 and Battle River 5 returning to operation.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 3.9¢/kWh so far for the month of February, no change over last week’s settle. In line with a decrease in demand across the province, natural gas-burning generation fell by 8.8% to 2,117MW. Nuclear baseload generation also dropped its output to an average of 9,828MW, a 233.92MW or 2.3% week-over-week decline. Hydro-based generation, on the other hand, increased output, climbing 0.6% to an average of 4,070MW. Wind, solar, and biofuel increased output this past week (+6.4%; 2306MW, +7.4%; 51MW, +23.3%; 38MW, respectively). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 5.0¢/kWh, February’s total market price is settling at 8.9¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst
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