Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for January is currently $113.36/MWh. Relative to December’s month-end price of $319.34/MWh, this represents a decrease of $205.98/MWh or 64.5%. Volatility so far this month has been relatively minor, with only a few hourly periods settling over $300/MWh. With milder temperatures to start the year, compared to what was experienced in December, hourly demand is down; the month-to-date high is 11,168MW, whereas December peaked at 12,193MW, a difference of 1,025MW or 9.2%. For the near term, weather in the province is expected to remain mild.
Electricity rebates in Alberta for small business, residential consumers and farms will be extended to April 2023 as part of the Affordability Action Plan. Monthly rebates were $50 on power bills from July to December 2022. These monthly rebates will increase to $75 in January and February 2023 and go down to $25 in March and April 2023. These rebates appear automatically on bills as “GOA Utility Commodity Rebate” and no application or action is required.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 3.7¢/kWh so far for January 2023, representing a 2.0¢/kWh or 35.1% decrease over last week’s settle. The primary driver of this price decline is the decreased demand across the province, causing the grid’s need for demand response to diminish. Natural gas-burning supply decreased by 41.0% (1532MW) over the course of this past week. Baseload generation, such as nuclear and hydro, both enhanced their week-over-week output to an average of 10013MW (+11.5%) and 4667MW (+1.5%), respectively. Wind and solar decreased output this past week (-39.2%; 1091MW, -44.4%; 15MW, respectively), whereas biofuel-burning generation increased supply (+0.8%; 26MW). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 3.1¢/kWh, January’s total market price is settling at 6.8¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Clara Birch, Energy Data Analyst
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