Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for May is currently $96.79/MWh. Relative to April’s month-end price of $88.61/MWh, this is an increase of $8.18/MWh or 9.23%. So far this month we have experienced 2 days of pricing peaks over $100/MWh, which occurred on the 3rd and 5th, when prices settled to $186.56/MWh and $110.37/MWh, respectively. Average hourly demand in the province was 8,912MW this past week, compared to April’s hourly demand of 9,087MW, representing a decrease of 175MW or 2%. Volatility is kept to a minimum when wind generation makes up a larger portion of the province’s generation mix. On May 3rd, when prices reached their highest of the month, wind was only able to contribute an average of 12.4% of its maximum capacity. On the 1st, however, pricing settled to $53.37/MWh, when wind was able to reach 50.3% of its maximum capacity. We should expect this trend to linger, as we continue to go through coal-to-gas conversions, as well as planned maintenance on other generation assets in the province, both of which limit the supply cushion.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is currently at 1.1¢/kWh for the opening week of May, an increase of 22% or 0.2¢/kWh compared to April’s last reported settlement price. Despite supply increasing (+1%, 14,929MW) and demand decreasing (-1%, 13,383MW) relative to average April levels, which would usually exert downward pressure on HOEP, the shift in the supply mix toward expensive natural gas-burning generation has helped inch prices upward. Natural gas has increased its supply by 14% (315MW) and nuclear has also increased its baseload (+3%, 9,497MW). All other generating sources decreased their supply: hydro (-5%, 3,747MW), wind (-1%, 1,271MW), solar (-22%, 76MW), and biofuel (-41%, 23MW). Currently, with the first Global Adjustment estimated at 9.9¢/kWh and the first estimate recovery rate at 0.7¢/kWh, May’s total market price is 11.7¢/kWh.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst / Sarah Clemente, Energy Data Analyst
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