Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for June is currently $143.35/MWh. Relative to the pricing set the week prior of $177.90/MWh, this is a decrease of $34.54/MWh or 19.4%. Market volatility continued this week, which elevated prices significantly on June 14th, when prices settled to $281.88/MWh. Between 11am and 11pm MST, the hourly price averaged $481.61/MWh, with a peak price of $702.53/MWh at 4pm MST. Demand peaked for the month on June 14th, reaching a high of 10,687MW at 5pm MST, an increase of 61MW or 0.6% relative to the peak demand of 10,626MW reached earlier in the month on June 2nd. Weather was the prime driver of this volatility, as heat warnings were in effect for the province earlier in the week. Over the past week, we experienced outages at HR Milner, Battle River 4, Sundance 6, Keephills 1 and 3, Genesee 1 and Sheerness 1. Path 2, the intertie connecting Alberta and Saskatchewan, went offline on May 31st and came back in service on June 11th. As of today, HR Milner and Battle River 4 remain offline.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is at 2.5¢/kWh for the month of June, a dip of 11% or 0.3¢/kWh compared to last week’s settle. While supply and demand have both decreased at similar rates (-5%, 16,485MW and -4%, 15,541MW), the supply of natural gas has dropped 27% (1,866MW) compared to average June levels, helping to drive HOEP downward. The supply of solar has increased 5% (125MW), while nuclear has remained steady (10,060MW), and all other sources have decreased their supply: hydro (-4%, 3,450MW), wind (-13%, 948MW), and biofuel (-61%, 37MW). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 10.8¢/kWh and the first estimate recovery rate at 0.6¢/kWh, June’s total market price is 13.9¢/kWh.
– Karyn Morrison, Energy Advisor / Sarah Clemente, Energy Data Analyst
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