Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for October is currently settling at $142.07/MWh. Relative to September’s month-end price of $96.14/MWh, this results in an increase of $45.93/MWh or 32.3%. Prices on October 4th and 5th settled to $310.33/MWh and $166.69/MWh, respectively, averaging $237.77/MWh for the 2-day period and contributing to the uptick in monthly price. Minimal wind and solar generation added to the increased volatility, as the market had to rely on receding coal generation as well as natural gas generators. In addition, there were outages at Battle River 4, as well as Sundance 4 and 6. Finally, limited capacity at the interties restricted imports of electricity between October 5th and 6th.
TransAlta recently announced several generators will be retiring or not returning to service in 2022. Retirement of active generators include Keephills 1, effective December 31st, 2021, and Sundance 4, effective April 1st, 2022. Sundance 5, which is currently offline for refurbishment, will not be repowered. The impact of these changes to the supply cushion may result in increased volatility, as the province takes a hit to its baseload generation.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst
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