Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for April is currently $93.54/MWh. Relative to March’s month-end price of $75.94/MWh, this represents a price increase of $17.60/MWh or 23.2%. Pricing for the first five days of April averaged $80.99/MWh, with volatility beginning on April 6th, with a daily average of $156.35/MWh, and a price peak of $718.47/MWh at midnight MST. This elevated price was primarily caused by minimal wind generation during the hours of 8pm to midnight, as the province saw a drop off in the renewable supply during this period. Regarding generator outages this week, HR Milner was offline for a short time, Keephills 2 was offline for a few days, and Battle River 4 remains offline.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 5.1¢/kWh so far for the month of April, representing a 1.2¢/kWh or 23.7% increase over last month’s settle. Despite this, demand across the province decreased, causing the grid’s need for demand response to diminish. Natural gas-burning supply decreased by 37.3% (1,067MW) over the course of this past week. Baseload generation, such as nuclear and hydro, both increased this past week, enhancing their output to an average of 8,794MW (+0.4%) and 4,273MW (+4.2%), respectively. Solar also increased output this past week, climbing 18.2% or 88MW, whereas wind and biofuel generation fell (-36.6%; -1,222MW, and -44.6%; -18MW, respectively). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 5.9¢/kWh, April’s total market price is settling at 11.0¢/kWh as of today.
– Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst / Clara Birch, Energy Data Analyst
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