Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for March is currently $88.82/MWh. Relative to February’s month-end price of $107.26/MWh, this is a decrease of $18.44/MWh or 17.2%. Month-to-date, we’ve only experienced two days of volatility, on the 2nd and 3rd, with a two-day average price of $165.38/MWh. Price volatility began at 10am MST and lasted throughout most of each day, as demand remained around 10,700MW until later parts of the evening. Minimal wind generation was also a factor on both days, averaging only 5% of maximum capacity, which resulted in the province relying on more expensive forms of generation to meet demand. Minimal intermittent generators occurred this past week, including Battle River 5, Path 2 and Sundance 6, with only Sundance 6 remaining offline.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 3.7¢/kWh so far for the month of March, representing a 0.4¢/kWh or 10.8% decrease over last week’s settle. Driving this price decline is a reduction in demand across the province, causing the grid’s need for demand response to diminish. Natural gas-burning generation decreased by 31.4% (2,447MW) over the course of this past week. Nuclear baseload generation also fell, decreasing its output to an average of 9,095MW, a 71.46MW or 0.8% week-over-week decrease. Hydro-based generation, on the other hand, increased output, climbing 1.6% to an average of 3,942MW. Wind and solar also ramped up (+14.4%; 1,589MW, +3.4%; 78MW, respectively) whereas biofuel decreased (-21.6%, -25MW). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 5.5¢/kWh, March’s total market price is currently settling at 9.2¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst
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