Why does the image of a cat about to swallow its freshly caught canary come to mind when I attempt to decipher the developments of the Line 5 discussions between the government representatives of the U.S. and Canada?
The problem is — we, the canaries, don’t know what’s being discussed with the very large and grinning U.S. cat. As I see it, we are in a situation with no one to blame but ourselves. How can we build cross Canada rail and natural gas systems whose routes never cross the border.
But, when it comes to crude oil, today’s lifeblood of our economy (and for decades to come), it gets lost in the political card shuffle with the U.S. Biden Administration who’s now the dealer in the game.
And that’s the problem.
Because this is a Canadian problem and not a U.S. one, it seriously affects crude oil, gasoline and diesel supply to eastern Canada whereas it is only a political sideshow for the Governor of Michigan. From what I can see, the response from Prime Minister Trudeau and his staff has hardly reached a, Churchillain: “We’ll fight them on the beaches” level.
No. We are still looking for the beach.
The way I see this going is the closer we get to the May 1st closure directive date from the Governor of Michigan the more likely that both sides will agree to delay the decision and set up a bi-national photo op committee to study the problem and come up with a photo op solution. When in doubt always form a committee and call a photographer.
This will pacify the politically optical ambitions of the Governor, show that the U.S. president is serious about his perceived environmental objections to pipelines, and allow Prime Minister Trudeau time to call an election without the threat of Ontario and Quebec gasoline supply evaporating, along with his pyramidal electoral support base in the Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto triangle.
This panic pause may be time for Ottawa to de-mummify the Energy East pipeline. That is, once the election is over because the initial Energy East plan was for it to transverse Quebec who, in the past, ruled it out even though pipelines fall under federal not provincial authority.
Energy East represents the best solution to getting Alberta crude out of Alberta to a tidewater other than the Gulf of Mexico.
The tide is going out on Line 5 though – and our economy will go with it. Line 5 is our canary in a coal mine.
– Roger McKnight – B.Sc., Senior Petroleum Analyst
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