Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for November is currently $272.20/MWh. Relative to October’s month-end price of $143.22/MWh, this is an increase of $128.98/MWh or 91%. Volatility over the past few days has been significant, as pricing for November 8th and 9th rank in the top 6 daily settles for 2022. A major contributing factor to this surge in pricing is an over-reliance on natural gas generation. While November was anticipated to see high levels of wind generation, this has not been the case month-to-date. Coinciding with minimal renewable generation, extremely cold temperatures have plagued the province, with several areas shattering historical temperature records, including Calgary and Lloydminster. We can expect volatility to continue until we see temperatures return to seasonal norms.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 2.7¢/kWh so far for the month of November, representing a 2.1¢/kWh or 79.1% decrease over last week’s settle. The primary driver of this price decline is the decrease in demand across the province, causing the grid’s need for demand response to diminish. Natural gas-burning supply decreased by 50.0% (-1529MW) over the course of this past week. Baseload generation, such as nuclear, improved output to an average of 6871MW, a 1528.74MW or 28.6% increase compared to last week. Hydro-based generation, on the other hand, fell 6.1% to an average of 4220MW. Wind and solar increased week-over-week output (+150.2%; 2054MW, +19.7%; 79MW, respectively), whereas biofuel decreased (-35.4%, -33MW). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 4.7¢/kWh, November’s total market price is settling at 7.4¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst