Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for September is currently $280.17/MWh, an increase of $12.80/MWh or 4.8% relative to last week’s price of $267.31/MWh. Pricing is on track to beat August’s price of $270.75/MWh, which would result in back-to-back record setting months. Grid alerts were experienced on both the 27th and 28th, in the early evening, where consumers were asked to reduce consumption to combat excess stress being placed on the grid. During these two days, prices settled to $559.23/MWh and $581.81/MWh, respectively, with the later ranking in the top 12 highest hourly settles in the past two decades. Major causes for the issues were planned maintenance on the interties between Alberta and BC, which import electricity into the province, minimal renewable generation, increased demand levels and unexpected generator outages. With these factors at play, we saw 5 hourly periods reach the maximum Power Pool Price of $999.99/MWh.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 6.2¢/kWh so far for the month of September, representing a 0.7¢/kWh or 11.2% decrease over last week’s settle. The primary driver of this price decline is the decrease in demand across the province, causing the grid’s need for demand response to diminish. Natural gas-burning supply decreased by 11.0% (-1,666MW) over the course of this past week. Baseload generation, such as nuclear, also fell, decreasing its output to an average of 9,209MW, a 12.73MW or 0.1% week-over-week decline. Hydro-based generation, on the other hand, increased output, climbing 1.8% to an average of 3,808MW. Wind increased output this past week (+7.0%; 1084MW), whereas Solar and Biofuel decreased (-5.5%; -88MW, and -11.4%; -47MW, respectively). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 4.0¢/kWh, September’s total market price is settling at 10.2¢/kWh as of today.
In other news, the Ontario government will request an extension from the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission to operate the aging Pickering nuclear facility until 2026, to address an anticipated energy crisis due to year-over-year decreases in baseload generation, such as nuclear. The extension request comes following the announcement of six new energy-generating contracts granted in late August by Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator – contracts meant to replace generation lost when Pickering was to close in 2025. If granted, this could help combat the raising HOEP but would likely come with expensive GA costs. The full cost of extending the Pickering Power Plant is not known at this time.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst
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