The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is currently at 1.9¢/kWh for July. Prices have maintained their heights for the majority of July, mostly due to hot and humid temperatures keeping electricity demand heightened in the province. Demand is currently averaging 17,000 MW throughout Ontario for this month – the highest it’s been all year.
Supply from all forms of generation has been keeping up with demand, with natural gas generation topping up supply during demand spikes.
This has caused prices to push their upper limit, mirroring demand at year-to-date highs. Nuclear generation has averaged 12,000 MW, while hydro-electric generation has fallen off to 4,150 MW due to drier weather. Wind has increased its output to 400 MW and natural gas generation has already been used 300% more than last month, averaging 1,800 MW. Currently, with July’s first Global Adjustment estimate of 13.5¢/kWh, July’s total market price is settling at 15.4¢/kWh.
Month-to-date weighted average Power Pool price is currently settling at $29.73/MWh, which is a 1% increase from last week’s settle of $29.58/MWh. Hourly electricity demand remains very similar to last week and there have been no significant generator outages. Power Pool prices might increase in the next couple of days, however, since the system operator expects to see some coal outages. Forward fixed price contracts for calendar year 2020 also remain virtually unchanged from last week. Currently, 7×24 and 7×16 blocks are trading indicatively at $60.33/MWh and $74.75/MWh respectively.