Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for December is currently $41.11/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $39.90/MWh, this is a fairly small increase of 3% or $1.21/MWh. Average hourly demand in the province was 10,229 MW, up 2.2% or 224 MW, contributing to the price uptick. Market volatility was minimal this past week, with prices reaching a high of $187.81/MWh at 6pm MST on the 11th and, on the 13th, peaking at $197.20/MWh at 6pm MST, coinciding with daily peak demands before quickly reverting to their monthly norm. In terms of generator outages, intermittent outages at HR Milner were experienced on the 11th and Keephills 2 and Battle River 4 have remained offline since December 14th; these outages, however, did not have much impact on pricing in the province. Keephills 3 came back online December 16th, adding 463MW of coal generation to the grid.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is currently at 1.7¢/kWh for December, an increase of approximately 21% or 0.3¢/kWh compared to last week’s settle. Driving this price increase is the continued decline in temperature, along with a shift in the supply mix. This past week, demand increased by 1% (16,028MW), while total supply remained relatively unchanged (16,631MW) and shifted towards a heavier reliance on expensive, dispatchable natural gas. Currently, with the first Global Adjustment estimated at 10.7¢/kWh, December’s total market price is 12.4¢/kWh.
In other electricity news, the Ontario Energy Board announced new Regulated Price Plan (RPP) rates for households and small businesses starting January 1, 2021. Winter Time-of-Use (TOU) prices are 8.5¢/kWh, 11.9¢/kWh, and 17.6¢/kWh for off-peak, mid-peak, and on-peak hours, respectively. Winter Tiered prices are 10.1¢/kWh up to the non-residential threshold of 750kWh/month, and 11.8¢/kWh for additional consumption. The drop in RPP prices reflect a shift in some renewable energy contract costs from ratepayers to taxpayers starting in the new year.
Also starting New Year’s Day, the Ontario Electricity Rebate (OER) will provide eligible consumers with a 21.2% rebate from their pre-tax subtotal. This is revised downward from the previously announced 33.2% rebate that came into effect November 1, 2020. The OER is for households, farms, long-term care homes and many small businesses. With the reduced RPP rates, the average residential bill will not increase compared to November 2020.
– Karyn Morrison, Energy Data Analyst / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst / Sarah Clemente, Energy Data Analyst
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