Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for January is currently $44.61/MWh. Compared to last month’s price of $38.74/MWh, this represents a net increase of $5.87/MWh or 15.2%. As expected, pricing has already been volatile in the New Year, reaching an hourly high of $184.21/MWh on January 4th at 9am MST. While this price spike did not coincide with the peak hourly demand that day, it did concur with daily demand of over 10,000MW. With this said, daily pricing on January 4th settled at $81.92/MWh. Further attributing to unstable pricing were several generator outages at Keephills 1, Keephills 2, Sundance 4 and Battle River 4 which, combined, contribute a maximum capacity of 1,351MW to Alberta’s supply mix. Mild weather helped suppress demand, but a sudden cold snap, coupled with continued generator outages, could tighten the supply/demand imbalance and push prices higher.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is currently at 1.8¢/kWh for January, unchanged relative to December’s last reported settle. Compared to average December levels, demand and supply for the opening week of January are down 1% (15,727MW) and 5% (15,980MW), respectively. Nuclear and hydro’s supply to the grid have increased 10% (9,801MW) and 1% (4,447MW), while all other sources have reduced their contribution: gas (-25%, 1,252MW), wind (-75%, 430MW), solar (-58%, 12MW), and biofuel (-32%, 39MW). Currently, with the first Global Adjustment estimated at 8.6¢/kWh, December’s total market price is 10.4¢/kWh.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst