Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for May is currently $72.77/MWh, representing a drop of $24.02/MWh or 24.8% relative to last week’s price of $96.79/MWh. The decrease in pricing is primarily attributed to minimal periods of market volatility. Year-to-date, we have been accustomed to multi-day, extended periods of increased pricing but, in the past week, there were only 5 hourly periods during which prices peaked to over $100/MWh. In contrast, on May 3rd there were 10 hourly periods with prices reaching over $100/MWh. Provincial hourly demand has continued to slowly decrease, as the monthly demand is currently 8,858MW, a decline of 54MW or 0.6%. Generator outages have also been kept to a minimum this week, with intermittent outages at HR Milner and Battle River 4. HR Milner has since come back online, along with Sheerness 2 and Keephills 1.

The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is at 1.3¢/kWh for the month of May, an increase of 18% or 0.2¢/kWh compared to last week’s settle. Driving this uptick is a decrease in supply (-2%, 14,497), while demand has stayed relatively stable (13,282MW) compared to average May levels. Nuclear has decreased its baseload by 2% (9,232MW), while gas and wind have also lowered their supply by 4% and 19% respectively. Hydro (+2%, 3,838MW), solar (+14%, 95MW), and biofuel (+7%, 26MW) have increased their supply. Currently, with the first Global Adjustment estimated at 9.9¢/kWh and the first estimate recovery rate at 0.7¢/kWh, May’s total market price is 11.9¢/kWh.

In other electricity news, the Ontario Chamber of Commerce (OCC) and the Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (CME) have released a statement on the government of Ontario’s motions to eliminate gas-fired electricity generation by 2030, while the Ontario Energy Association (OEA) has released a report on the implications of this phase-out. Together, the statement and report are urging the provincial government to not phase out gas-fired electricity as part of Canada’s pathway to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. The report states that natural gas is the only resource capable of meeting peak demand periods year-round, and will be essential to maintaining electrical system reliability, flexibility, and affordability, especially during nuclear refurbishments over the next decade. Both the statement and report also highlight that Ontario’s electrical system is already one of the greenest and cleanest in the world, with only 2-3% of the province’s GHG emissions stemming from the electricity system; three-quarters of emissions are from transportation, industry, and buildings, and the path to net zero by 2050 will involve major transformation of these systems. Currently, Natural gas-burning generation makes up the most expensive component to the HOEP-based cost of Ontario’s electricity, which will only increase as the price of carbon also climbs. On the flip side, carbon-burning generation also has the lowest startup time for production amongst fuel-type generation, meaning it currently plays a big role in helping ensure grid reliability for the province.

– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst / Sarah Clemente, Energy Data Analyst

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