Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for October is currently $66.03/MWh. Compared to last week’s price of $50.67/MWh, this is an increase of 23.6% or $15.36/MWh. With cooler temperatures setting in across the province, hourly demands continue to increase. On October 26th at 12pm MST a peak of 10,532MW was reached, with the average hourly demand hitting 9,350MW. Daily demands in the province are consistently above 10,000MW, and we do not expect this to change as we head into the winter. Planned outages at the interties to BC and Montana have continued to cause daily price volatility, but these outages should cease on the 30th. Outages at HR Milner and Sundance 4 also contributed to unstable pricing this past week.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is currently at 1.1¢/kWh, a slight week-over-week uptick of 0.1¢/kWh or 10%. This price increase is driven by decreasing provincial temperatures, as well as a change in the supply mix and a modest tightening in the supply/demand spread. The provincial daily average temperature has decreased nearly 3oC relative to the previous week, serving to increase demand (+3%, 13,771MW) as buildings continue to shift to their heating load. Supply, on the other hand, has decreased this week (-3%, 15,233MW), with a shift toward more expensive generating sources: the supply of gas increased nearly 12% compared to last week (743MW). Hydro and solar have also increased their supply (+1%, 3,825MW; +5%, 64MW), while nuclear, wind, and biofuel decreased their supply (-1%, 9,33MW; -34%, 1,227MW; -36%, 41MW). As temperatures continue to fall, we expect HOEP to creep up closer to 1.8¢/kWh, until strong cold fronts of the winter season set in and hike prices higher. Currently, with the first Global Adjustment estimated at 14.9¢/kWh, October’s total market price is 16.0¢/kWh.
As a reminder, customers who are on a Regulated Price Plan (RPP) and have a smart meter have the choice to pay either Time of Use (TOU) or Tiered pricing starting November 1st. A bill calculator on the Ontario Energy Board’s (OEB) website can be used to help decide which pricing plan best suits your consumption profile. Also starting November 1st are changes to TOU and Tiered pricing rates, and an increase in the Ontario Electricity Rebate (OER) to 33.2%. For further information about switching regulated pricing plans, new regulated price rates, or OER eligibility criteria, customers are encouraged to contact their utility provider or the OEB.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Data Analyst / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst