Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for October settled to $96.82/MWh, a marginal decrease of $0.23/MWh or 0.2% relative to last week’s price of $97.05/MWh. Conversely, provincial demand in the province saw a marginal increase of 50MW or 0.3%. As temperatures drop further, demand will continue to increase. For the time being, this uptick in demand will be offset by increased wind generation, which will help increase the supply cushion. A few generators, namely Battle River 5 and Sundance 4, came back online the last few days of the month. The intertie connect, allowing the import of electricity from BC to Alberta, has also returned to service after a multi-day outage. There were a few periods of volatility to round out the month, specifically on the 29th, when the daily price averaged $125.30/MWh. Volatility occurred between 10am and 2pm MST, when pricing averaged $225.06/MWh and reached a peak of $298.15/MWh.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 3.4¢/kWh so far this month, representing a 0.5/kWh or 15.2% decrease from October’s settle. The primary driver of this price decline is the decrease in temperature across the province, causing the grid’s need for demand response to diminish. That said, natural gas-burning generation, coupled with high gas prices, has still caused higher than seasonal HOEP. Natural gas contributed ~1,276MW to the grid this past week, an increase of 110.3% year-over-year. Baseload generation, such as nuclear, also picked back up, increasing its output to an average of 9,367MW, a 676MW or 7.8% increase compared to October. Output from Hydro, Wind, Solar, and Biofuel also increased this past week (+1.3%; 3,802MW, +25.1%; 1,657MW, +16.1%; 71MW, +100.1%; 43MW, respectively).
With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 5.7¢/kWh and the first estimate recovery rate at 0.6¢/kWh, November’s total market price is currently settling at 9.7¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst
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