Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for February is currently $75.92/MWh, representing a week-over-week decrease of $17.61/MWh or 18.8%. The month started with colder temperatures, which slightly elevated pricing, but pivoted to unseasonably mild weather this past week. As a result, only February 5th saw elevated pricing levels, averaging $185.15/MWh for the day. Most volatility occurred between 5pm and 9pm MST, when prices averaged $690.62/MWh, and almost reached the provincial cap before settling to $999.64/MWh at 7pm MST. Moderate demand levels didn’t contribute to the higher levels of pricing but, rather, the culprit was a combination of a dip in renewable generation and simultaneous baseload generator outages at Sundance 4 & 6, Battle River 4 & 5, Keephills 2 and Sheerness 1. In total, the province experienced a baseload generation outage of 1,849MW, which caused a supply shortfall at 6pm and 7pm MST.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 3.9¢/kWh so far for the month of February, representing a 0.2¢/kWh or 5.2% increase over last week’s settle. The primary driver of this price jump is the increased use of demand response generators, typically expensive and natural gas-burning. Natural gas-burning generation increased by 111.5% (2,129MW) over the course of this past week, while nuclear baseload generation fell, decreasing output to an average of 10,378MW, a 469.49MW or 4.3% week-over-week decrease. Hydro-based generation, on the other hand, increased output, climbing 2.0% to an average of 4,033MW. Solar also increased output, climbing 9.8% or 38MW, whereas wind and biofuel generation both decreased supply (-18.0%; -2220MW, and -36.8%; -27MW, respectively). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 5.0¢/kWh, February’s total market price is currently settling at 8.9¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst
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