Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for January is currently settling at $108.57/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $130.67/MWh, this results in a decrease of $22.10/MWh or 16.9%. Volatility over the course of the past week was kept to a minimum, with the weekly average price settling to $69.44/MWh. Demand decreased slightly from the prior week, by 89MW or 0.8%, which had minimal impact on pricing. Elevated levels of wind generation in the province have continued to help suppress extreme volatility during colder periods when demand spikes. On the 18th, when we saw wind generation taper off during the later parts of the day, pricing increased and resulted in a daily price of $108.88/MWh. Intermittent outages at Battle River 4 and Sheerness 2 occurred this past week, both of which have since returned to service. Extended outages at Sundance 4, Keephills 3, Battle River 5 and Sundance 6 remain in effect.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 3.7¢/kWh month-to-date, representing a 0.3¢/kWh or 8.1% increase over last week’s settle. The primary driver of this elevation in price is more demand response generation, which typically calls on expensive natural gas-burning generators. Natural gas-burning supply increased by 16.4% or 2,606MW over the course of this past week, while baseload generation, such as nuclear, decreased output by 0.7% to an average of 10,049MW. Hydro-based generation, on the other hand, increased output, climbing 0.2% to an average of 4,048MW. Solar also increased output this past week, climbing 24.1% or 23MW, whereas wind and biofuel generation both declined (-0.4%; -2260MW, and -13.8%; -28MW, respectively). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 4.8¢/kWh, January’s total market price is currently settling at 8.5¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst
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