Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool price for March is currently $79.29/MWh; relative to last week’s price of $88.82/MWh, this is a decrease of $9.53/MWh or 10.7%. Minimal market volatility over the past week helped to suppress pricing, as prices averaged $64.49/MWh with only four hourly periods in the week settling above $100/MWh. Demand in the province also declined slightly, similar to Power Pool prices, decreasing by 159MW or 1.5%. Warmer weather over the past week helped curb some of the demand in the province, with daily highs consistently being above 0°C. Extended generator outages occurred at Keephills 2, Genesee 2 and Battle River 5, with intermittent outages at Battle River 4, HR Milner, and Genesee 3. Consistent wind generation in the province helped to curb any elevated pricing levels as well.
The month-to-date weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is currently 3.9¢/kWh, representing a 0.1¢/kWh or 2.6% increase over last week’s settle. Demand across the province decreased as temperatures began to rise, causing the grid’s need for demand response to diminish. Natural gas-burning generation supply decreased by 7.3% (2303MW) over the course of this past week, along with base-load generation such as nuclear, which decreased its output to an average of 8885MW – a 136MW or 1.5% decrease compared to last week. Hydro-based generation on the other hand increased output, climbing 0.6% to an average of 4007MW. Wind and biofuel increased output this past week as well, climbing 2.3% (1518MW) and 10.3% (31MW) respectively, whereas solar decreased (-10.3%, -73MW). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 5.5¢/kWh, March’s total market price is currently 9.4¢/kWh, as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst
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