Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for May is currently $118.80/MWh. Relative to April’s month-end price of $117.21/MWh, this represents a marginal price increase of $1.59/MWh or 1.4%. Hourly average demand in the province has dropped by 454MW or 4.7% and, while this should typically reduce volatility, elevated levels of baseload pricing continue to keep off-peak pricing high. In Q1 2022, pricing between the hours of midnight and 7am MST averaged $59.43/MWh, whereas the month-to-date average is $96.53/MWh. In addition, decreased levels of solar generation have caused an increased reliance on natural gas generation, whose input costs have soared alongside 14-year high natural gas prices. Generator outages at Keephills 2 and Battle River 4 have occurred from the start of the month, as well as intermittent outages at Battle River 5, which is currently offline.

The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 1.9¢/kWh so far for the month of May, representing a 1.1¢/kWh or 56.9% decrease over last week’s settle. The primary driver of this price decline is the decrease in demand across the province, causing the grid’s need for demand response to diminish. Natural gas-burning generation increased by 29.7% (472MW), while baseload generation such as nuclear and hydro both increased (+0.3%; +9,501MW, and +6.7%; +4,750MW, respectively). Wind and solar decreased output this past week (-32.8%; -1,098MW, -33.0%; -65MW, respectively), whereas biofuel-burning generation increased supply (+34.5%, +16MW). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 6.0¢/kWh, May’s total market price is settling at 7.9¢/kWh as of today.

– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Clara Birch, Energy Data Analyst

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