Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for May is currently $124.26/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $126.78/MWh, this results in a price decrease of $2.52/ MWh or 2%. Hourly average demand in the province saw a marginal increase of 50MW or 0.6%. Over the past week, we have seen off-peak pricing dip below the $80/MWh average we’ve been accustomed to in May, with prices settling in the $60/MWh range. This decrease in off-peak pricing has helped smooth some of the volatility experienced throughout the day, thanks to an uptick in wind generation during these periods. While there was a marginal decrease in pricing from the previous week, extreme volatility on the 15th, when prices averaged $139.55/MWh and peaked at $427.32/MWh, along with intermittent outages at Battle River 4, Sundance 6, Calgary Energy Centre, and Keephills 2, capped the extent to which the monthly price receded.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 3.4¢/kWh so far for the month of May, representing a 1.1¢/kWh or 32.1% increase over last week’s settle. The primary driver of this price hike is the increased use of expensive natural gas-burning demand response generators. Natural gas-burning supply increased by 49.3% (901MW) over the course of this past week, while baseload generation, such as nuclear, decreased output to an average of 7,939MW, a 686.63MW or 8.0% week-over-week decline. Hydro-based generation, on the other hand, increased output, climbing 4.3% to an average of 4,994MW. Wind and solar decreased output this past week (-8.4%; 1,233MW, -0.6%; 115MW, respectively), whereas biofuel-burning generation increased supply (+45.2%, +25MW). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 6.0¢/kWh, May’s total market price is settling at 9.4¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst