I know, I know! No wait a minute, I don’t know!

Ah yes, now I am a definite and sort of sure someone, but not me, knows.

That’s my take on the whack-a-mole U.S. presidential election, which has the ink stained trendoid gurus in the media whacking their heads with the same, if not heavier, hammer.

Although we north of the border may be somewhat haughtily amused and, speaking for myself, confused by the entire elecorational (irrational?) process, the final decision made by the U.S. populous has serious implications for our economy, which (like it or not central Canada including Ottawa), is still driven by the resource sector especially energy, and in particular, the oil industry.

At the time of this report, it seemed that the U.S. would be leaning left with a Biden win.

If this is to, in fact happen, then the future of the oil patch in Alberta looks foggy; with the same outlook for the shale oil fields in the Permian basin and any other basin when you think of it.

There must be a lot of thought right now in Alberta and maybe even in Ottawa on the potential demise of the Keystone DL pipeline, which will be in the stated sight lines of a Biden administration.

Let us not forget that Biden was the one in the background photo when Barack Obama cancelled the XL as he said it was not in the best interest of the USA, only to be revived with the 2016 Trump election victory who thought the opposite.

Will the project be cancelled for a second time?

Um, sort of probably? Is my diplomatic kiss your sister answer.

The XL is too far along with too many U.S. jobs at stake for a slam down shut down.

Like it or not the U.S. refining industry and the U.S. consumer need Alberta crude.

I believe the threat is real, but the action taken will be one we are familiar with: legislative delay. And, if in doubt, delay it more.

Just wear down the patience and finances of the Alberta government and TC Energy.

What could Ottawa’s response be if there is one?

If the problem with the XL is the eco alarmists’ fear of thunder clouds of carbon-based emissions, then the offer from Canada may be to force our oil industry to come up with an environmental olive branch full of olives.

This would include, for example, mandated methane reductions. This would open the floodgate doors for our feds to impress upon the new U.S. feds, the action being taken with the carbon tax structure that we hold over the heads of the Canadian consumer, which Ottawa can dramatically increase at will.

It could be explained to the new president that this tax dissuades consumers from consuming fossil fuels, and any, and all derivatives from the refining of crude oil. Just omit the fact that it dissuades economic growth.

Maybe the U.S. should have a shiny new carbon tax as well! No debating that one. Is it too late for debate?

– Roger McKnight – B.Sc., Senior Petroleum Analyst

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