Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for August is currently $159.88/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $80.48/MWh, this is an increase of $79.40/MWh or 98.7%. Volatility over the past week has increased dramatically from the start of the month. Consistent daily settles over $100/MWh have pushed the monthly price to where it currently stands, with daily prices of $345.97/MWh and $418.06/MWh on the 7th and 10th, respectively. Outages at several generators, including Genesee 2, Sheerness 1, Keephills 2, Battle River 4 and 5 (all of which have come back online), contributed to the upward price movement.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 9.1¢/kWh so far for the month of August, representing a 1.8¢/kWh or 19.8% increase over last week’s settle. The increased use of demand response generators has fueled this price surge, with natural gas-burning supply up 17.4% (2,747MW) over the course of this past week. Baseload generation, such as nuclear and hydro, lowered their output to an average of 10,275MW (-0.2%) and 4,273MW (-0.6%), respectively. Solar and biofuel increased week-over-week output (+10.1%; 102MW, +16.4%; 43MW, respectively), whereas wind generation fell (-22.4%, -1,036MW). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 4.9¢/kWh, August’s total market price is settling at 14.0¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst
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