Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for November settled to $191.00/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $184.88/MWh, this represents an increase of $6.12/MWh or 3.3%. Pricing in the province had gone through some flux in November, with earlier parts of the month experiencing significant volatility, followed by periods of low market settles. On the last 2 days of the month, there were significant shifts in pricing, with daily settles averaging $424.81/MWh and $360.48/MWh, occurring on the 29th and 30th, respectively. Pricing for the end of the month stemmed from a sudden drop in temperatures, with parts of the province experiencing -15 to -25°C. As a result, the AESO declared Emergency Energy Alert level 3 (EEA-3) at 4:47pm MST on November 29th and was removed a couple of hours after the fact. Coinciding with the weather in the province, Sundance 6 went offline, and minimal renewable generation was available. With temperatures expected to remain low for the remainder of the week, pricing can be expected to be volatile.

The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) settled to 3.2¢/kWh for the month of November, representing no change over last week’s settle. Natural gas burning generation supply decreased by -7.7% (1350MW) over the course of this past week. Base-load generation, including nuclear and hydro, both increased this past week, enhancing their output to an average of 2.0% (7823MW) and 0.3% (4521MW), respectively. Wind increased output this past week (+2.5%; 2105MW), whereas Solar and Biofuel decreased (-8.6%; -49MW, and -3.7%; -18MW, respectively).

With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 4.7¢/kWh, November’s total market rate settled to 7.9¢/kWh. For December, HOEP is currently settling at 2.2¢/kWh which, combined with the first Global Adjustment estimated at 5.9¢/kWh, brings December’s total market rate to 8.1¢/kWh as of today.

– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst

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