Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for December is currently $311.33/MWh. Relative to November’s month end price of $191/MWh, this is an increase of $120.33/MWh or 63%. December has experienced significant volatility, as cold weather has attributed to reaching some of the highest hourly demand periods the province has experienced this year, with some occurring in the top five peak demands of the year so far. Minimal renewable generation during this elevated period of demand has caused the province to rely on expensive natural gas generators to supply electricity to the grid. Furthermore, intermittent outages at Battle River 4 and Sundance 6 have resulted in increased pricing during peak periods.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 3.9¢/kWh so far for the month of December, representing no change over last week’s settle. Natural gas burning generation supply decreased by -3.8% (1456MW) over the course of this past week. Base-load generation, such as nuclear and hydro, both increased this past week, enhancing their output to an average of 0.4% (8337MW) and 3.3% (4963MW), respectively. Wind and solar decreased output (-15.2%; 2408MW, and -8.0%; 27MW, respectively), whereas biofuel burning generation increased (+1.0%, +18MW). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 6.0¢/kWh, December’s total market price is currently settling at 9.9¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst