Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for February is currently $94.14/MWh. Relative to last week’s price of $79.46/MWh, this represents an increase of $14.68/MWh or 18%. Prices averaged $111.02/MWh over the past week, pulling the average weekly price up after peaking to a high of $834.60/MWh at HE 14 on February 13th. Generator outages at Battle River 5, Sheerness 2 and Path 83 limited supply and increased hourly pricing. The hourly demand for February is averaging 10,335 MW and peaked at 11,360 MW on February 1st. February has experienced a few periods of volatility but, compared to market expectations heading into the month, the monthly price to-date is significantly lower as weakening natural gas prices and minimal generator outages have put downward pressure on pricing.

The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 2.1¢/kWh so far for the month of February, representing a 0.3¢/kWh or 14.3% decrease over last week’s settle. The primary driver of this price decline is the decrease in demand across the province, causing the grid’s need for demand response to diminish. Natural gas-burning supply decreased by 31.9% (1266MW) over the course of this past week. Baseload generation, such as nuclear and hydro, lowered their output to an average of 9831MW (-1.2%) and 4545MW (-0.5%), respectively. Solar increased week-over-week output (+28.3%; 60MW), whereas wind and biofuel generation fell (-1.6%; -2353MW, and -3.9%; -40MW, respectively). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 6.3¢/kWh, February’s total market price is settling at 8.4¢/kWh as of today.

– Karyn Morrison, Energy Advisor / Clara Birch, Energy Data Analyst

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