Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for June is currently $156.61/MWh. Relative to May’s month-end price of $121.84/MWh, this results in an increase of $34.77/MWh or 28.5%. Extreme bouts of volatility have caused elevated levels of month-to-date pricing, with 3 days settling above $190/MWh, on the 1st, 2nd and 7th. Demand has not been a driving force, as average hourly demand has dropped by 200MW or 2.2%. The main causes for the surge in pricing are elevated natural gas prices and low levels of renewable generation. On days when pricing increased to over $190/MWh, wind generation in the province was at its lowest point for the month, averaging anywhere from 4% to 15% of its max capacity, with most of the supply occurring during off-peak and low demand periods.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 2.3¢/kWh so far for the month of June, representing a 2.0¢/kWh or 88.2% decrease over last week’s settle. The primary driver of this price decline is the decrease in demand across the province, causing the grid’s need for demand response to diminish. Natural gas-burning supply decreased by 51.2% (582MW) over the course of this past week. Baseload generation, such as nuclear and hydro, also lowered their output to an average of 9,597MW (-0.5%) and 4,851MW (7.3%), respectively. Solar, on the other hand, increased week-over-week output (+28.1%; 97MW), while wind and biofuel generation dropped (-2.1%; -927MW, and -21.7%; -11MW, respectively). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 8.3¢/kWh, June’s total market price is settling at 10.6¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst