Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for October settled to $143.22/MWh, representing a 10.42/MWh or 6.7% drop compared to last week’s month-to-date price of $153.64/MWh. Volatility remained minimal this past week, with only the last day of the month settling to $232.04/MWh, and the remaining days averaging $54.07/MWh. Market stability can be attributed to increased levels of wind generation, which averaged over 60% of its maximum capacity and lessened the grid’s reliance on expensive natural gas generation. Outages at Keephills 2, Sheerness and Battle River 4 all occurred, but did not have an adverse effect on prices, thanks to all the renewable generation being sourced.

The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 4.9¢/kWh so far for the month of November, representing a 0.4¢/kWh or 8.1% increase over last month’s settle. The primary driver of this price hike is the increased use of demand response generators, which are typically expensive natural gas-burning ones. Natural gas-burning supply increased by 113.0% (3252MW) over the course of this past week. Baseload generation, such as nuclear, fell this past week, decreasing its output to an average of 5314MW, a 1416.17MW or 21.0% week-over-week decrease. Hydro-based generation, on the other hand, improved output, climbing 9.6% to an average of 4501MW. Wind and solar decreased output this past week (-74.2%; 463MW, -17.3%; 65MW, respectively), whereas biofuel-burning generation increased supply (+382.6%, +49MW). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 4.7¢/kWh, November’s total market price is settling at 9.6¢/kWh as of today.

– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst

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