Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for October is currently $324.89/MWh. Relative to September’s month-end price of $272.30/MWh, this is an increase of $52.59/MWh or 19.3%. Pricing is slightly over-inflated for the start of the month, as three days had market pricing settle to over $300/MWh; issues which occurred at the end of September had spilled into the start of this month. With above-seasonal temperatures and low renewable generation, supply remains tight. Furthermore, outages at the Interties from BC and Montana are amplifying supply issues and increasing pricing. Until we see the return of the Interties and an increase in the renewable generation, we can expect pricing to remain elevated and at risk for extreme fluctuations.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 4.4¢/kWh so far for the month of October, representing a 1.8¢/kWh or 40.6% decrease over last week’s settle. The primary driver of this price decline is the decrease in demand across the province, causing the grid’s need for demand response to diminish. Natural gas-burning supply increased by 56.9% (1,601MW) over the course of this past week. Baseload generation, such as nuclear and hydro, both decreased this past week, lowering their output to an average of 8,593MW (-6.2%), and 3,826MW (-5.5%), respectively. Solar increased week-over-week output (+49.5%; 117MW), whereas wind and biofuel generation decreased supply (-38.1%; -852MW, and -93.6%; -2MW, respectively). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 0.5¢/kWh, October’s total market price is settling at 4.9¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Clara Birch, Energy Data Analyst