Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for September is currently $236.39/MWh. Relative to August’s price of $270.75/MWh, this is a decrease of $34.36/MWh or 12.7%. While it’s a slight reprieve to pricing experienced in August, September has already seen bouts of volatility on the 1st, 3rd, and 6th, with prices settling to $306.47/MWh, $297.96/MWh, and $381.83/MWh, respectively. The first few days of September continued to be plagued with lower amounts of renewable generation and natural gas outages. As we head into later parts of the month, demand should continue to decrease, as cooler temperatures grasp the province and wind generation picks up, which should help to offset expensive natural gas generation.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 8.3¢/kWh so far for the month of September, representing a 0.1¢/kWh or 1.2% increase over last week’s settle. The primary driver of this price incline is the increased use of demand response generators, which are typically expensive natural gas-burning ones. Natural gas supply increased by 9.9% (1,747MW) over the course of this past week, while nuclear baseload generation decreased its output to an average of 9,685MW, a 601.74MW or 5.8% decrease. Hydro-based generation increased week-over-week output by 1.7%, to an average of 3,830MW, while wind climbed 50.2% or 810MW. Solar and Biofuel supply decreased (-33.7%; -99MW, and -12.8%; -44MW, respectively). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 4.0¢/kWh, September’s total market price is settling at 12.3¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst