Alberta’s weighted average Power Pool Price for September is currently $267.31/MWh, a decrease of $29.90/MWh or 10.1% relative to last weeks’ price of $297.21/MWh. While early parts of September experienced significant volatility, with multiple days settling over $200/MWh, the past few days have provided some price reprieve. Pricing averaged $168.10/MWh over the past 6 days and dropped to an average price of $139.06/MWh for the last 3 days. That said, market prices are finally trending downward, thanks to an uptick in renewable generation, but September’s month-end price will remain elevated due to continued generator outages, currently trending at 3,500MW.
The weighted average Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) is settling at 7.2¢/kWh so far for the month of September, representing a 0.8¢/kWh or 11.1% decrease over last week’s settle. Driving this price decline is a decrease in demand across the province, diminishing the grid’s need for demand response generation. Natural gas-burning supply decreased by 9.0% (1,929MW) over the course of this past week. Baseload generation, such as nuclear, also fell, decreasing its output to an average of 9,228MW, a 103.59MW or 1.1% decline. Hydro-based generation, on the other hand, increased output, climbing 0.1% to an average of 3,734MW. Wind and biofuel both increased output this past week (+22.7%; 931MW, +0.7%; 53MW, respectively), whereas solar contributed less to the grid (-6.6%; -93MW). With the first Global Adjustment estimated at 4.0¢/kWh, September’s total market price is settling at 11.2¢/kWh as of today.
– Mark Ljuckanov, Energy Advisor / Ryan Cosgrove, Energy Data Analyst